a:26:{s:9:"weblog_id";s:1:"4";s:8:"entry_id";s:0:"";s:6:"sticky";s:0:"";s:14:"allow_comments";s:1:"n";s:16:"allow_trackbacks";s:1:"n";s:10:"entry_date";s:19:"2008-12-04 05:47 AM";s:15:"expiration_date";s:0:"";s:23:"comment_expiration_date";s:0:"";s:8:"category";a:2:{i:0;s:1:"4";i:1;s:2:"29";}s:9:"author_id";s:1:"2";s:6:"status";s:4:"open";s:14:"trackback_urls";s:0:"";s:18:"versioning_enabled";s:1:"y";s:5:"title";s:35:"ABC Releases 2009 Building Forecast";s:9:"url_title";s:35:"abc_releases_2009_building_forecast";s:6:"submit";s:6:"Submit";s:11:"field_id_26";s:35:"ABC Releases 2009 Building Forecast";s:11:"field_ft_26";s:4:"none";s:11:"field_id_31";s:0:"";s:11:"field_id_44";s:281:"The  Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC)  released its2009 economic forecast for the commercial and industrial construction industry on Dec. 3. \"While
the industry experienced a mixed bag in 2008, do not expect the same story in 2009,\" saidABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.";s:11:"field_ft_44";s:4:"none";s:11:"field_id_28";s:19:"ABC, Forecast, 2009";s:11:"field_ft_28";s:4:"none";s:11:"field_id_29";s:4894:"<p>The&nbsp; Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC)&nbsp; released its2009 economic forecast for the commercial and industrial construction industry on Dec. 3. \"While<br />the industry experienced a mixed bag in 2008, do not expect the same story in 2009,\" saidABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.</p>
<p>\"For more than a year, economists have been discussing how weak the overall economyhas been. The ongoing credit crunch began in earnest in August 2007 and the U.S.<br />economy shrank during last year\'s fourth quarter,\" said Basu. \"Because commercialconstruction typically lags the overall economy by one to two years, the weakness that<br />has pummeled other segments of the nation\'s economy has not been as apparent incommercial construction performance.</p>
<p>\"However, that is about to change in 2009,\" added Basu. \"One of the most telling signsthat we will see a downturn in commercial and industrial construction activity is thedramatic fall of the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AmericanInstitute of Architects. In October, the ABI rating reached a historic low not seen since<br />the rating system was established in 1995.</p>
<p>\"While nonresidential construction employment was down 4.7 percent on a year-overyearbasis in October, this level of job loss pales in comparison to what is likely to<br />emerge over the next twelve months,\" added Basu.</p>
<p>\"ABC expects that the reversal in industry fortunes will be increasingly manifested in the2009 and 2010 data. It is worth noting that producer prices also will begin to decline<br />more forcefully in the months ahead due to the deflation in key commodities, includingcopper, steel and oil. However, this will help accelerate the sector\'s eventual recovery.\"<br /><br /><img alt=\"ABC CHART\" class=\"image-left\" height=\"513\" src=\"/images/uploads/abc-chart.jpg\" style=\"float: left;\" width=\"550\" /></p>
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<p><strong>The 2009 Outlook</strong></p>
<p><strong>Commercial building</strong>, such as retail and restaurants, will be off between 10 percent and20 percent next year in dollar terms compared to 2008.<br />Lodging will be negatively impacted by both a general decline in new constructionactivity and a reduction in personal and professional travel. This segment has been one of<br />the leading engines of construction starts, but value put in place may decline 20 percentor more next year.<br /><strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>Office construction</strong> will be off between 15 percent and 25 percent in 2009 due toongoing difficulties in the financing environment, as well as waves of job losses in key<br />office segments, such as financial services.Manufacturing will see a sharp decline after registering massive gains during the past<br />several years. With domestic and global demand for manufactured products now falling<br />decisively, expenditures on manufacturing-related buildings will fall in the neighborhood<br />of 25 percent to 35 percent next year, with declines likely to persist into 2010.</p>
<p><strong>Institutional construction</strong>, such as hospitals, prisons and schools, will also soften due to<br />a combination of state and local fiscal duress and the ongoing turbulence in the municipal<br />bond and similarly situated financial markets. As a result, institutional building<br />construction will slip more than 5 percent next year in terms of dollars expended.</p>
<p><strong>Power construction </strong>investment, especially in the alternative energy-related segment,<br />will continue to trend higher even as electricity utility construction declines (down 30<br />percent in 2009) in the face of financing difficulties and retreating energy prices.<br />Alternative energy investment will receive a boost from the incoming administration,<br />which has committed to supporting segments such as wind, solar and biofuels.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> As 2009 looks to be a challenging year for the commercial and industrial<br />construction industry, the next federal stimulus package being discussed in Washington,<br />D.C., which will likely include a significant infrastructure component, may emerge as a<br />countervailing force. While it will take some time to implement such a program, an<br />infrastructure-based stimulus package may address both issues of short-term economic<br />weakness and longer-term competitive needs. Moreover, investment in infrastructure<br />represents a way for the federal government to take advantage of now declining<br />construction input prices, allowing it to purchase more infrastructure for each dollar<br />spent.</p>";s:10:"category_0";s:1:"4";s:10:"category_1";s:2:"29";}