No one knows what impact ebooks will have on the publishing business. All we do have is a series of guesses based on assumptions and a few -- very few -- hard facts. Yesterday one of the latter came out -- Apple's price policy for books sold through its store for the iPad. In a nutshell it appears to mean that Apple will insist that all books -- including most new popular hardbacks -- must be priced at no more than $9.99 in the US. In other words the premium for being both new and hardback is now gone.

Here's <a href="http://industry.bnet.com/technology/10006525/apple-dictates-max-e-book-prices-and-big-publishing-is-scared/" target="_blank">an analysis of the implications of that from BNET</a>. It's pretty sound on some points and, for me, way off on others.

<!--more-->

Rounding down prices to this level in the US is earthshaking stuff for that country's massive publishing industry on two levels. It cramps their margins. But also, and perhaps more worryingly, it takes pricing out of their hands and gives control of it to their distributor, in this case Apple. Most companies feel it's their job to decide the selling price for their wares. Apple certainly doesn't allow its own products to get much in the way of competitive pricing through retailers -- which is why iPods cost pretty much the same everywhere.

But it's different when you hold the distribution channels it seems. Apple will determine prices, just as Amazon are doing through Kindle. How new is this?

Well actually, here in the UK not that new at all. Over the last few years the retail trade has shrunk to a few big channels. Some of the most important ones, the supermarkets, are effectively running a very similar kind of pricing scheme. It's nothing formal on paper, but everyone knows -- unless you offer your books at a discount price they won't make their way onto the supermarket shelves. Book prices in the UK have fallen considerably -- along with publisher margins and author royalties -- as a result.

Now clearly that's on the way in the US too. Tough times ahead.

Where I depart from the BNET analysis is in the increasingly common view that this all somehow represents a great opportunity for authors to branch out on their own and self publish their way to success. Here are the factors the article cites...
<blockquote>Given the variety of tools and services to turn manuscripts into books, creating an e-book is becoming ever easier.

As a reader of this blog pointed out publishers frequently use less care and editing in e-books than in printed versions, resulting in more typos and sloppy production. Perhaps this is a result of lower prices. In any case, authors may not get the same professional care as with print.

Most authors already must do most of their own sales and marketing.

It’s relatively easy to get an e-book into “print,” and so the one-time publisher advantage of having access to necessary title distribution is disappearing.</blockquote>
Hard to argue with any of them. <i>Technically</i> it's never been easier to get a book into digital print. But here you hit a perennial problem. Successful books aren't just&nbsp;<i>printed</i>. They're <i>published.</i> Anyone can print something. Few can publish successfully. Publishing involves a chain of skills -- editing, revision, marketing, design, positioning and building an author's career slowly and carefully. It's also an increasingly global business. Maybe 35 to 40 per cent of my own income now comes from sales outside my home market.

Yes, self publishers could go out there and try to buy in some of these skills. If you're a massive bestseller maybe you could afford to hire some of the most talented publishing names out there to do the job for you. But few people are massive bestsellers. I'm not, and even after sixteen years and just as many books I have neither the time nor the skill to get involved in the business side of publishing. It's hard enough writing books. I simply don't want to take on the job of selling them too, even if I thought I was capable of it -- which I don't.

The publishing industry makes mistakes from time to time -- what industry, what author doesn't? But the plain truth it works on an invisible army of unsung heroes who find talent, put books together, rescue botched projects, bring them to market, sell them into retailers, follow up on orders, book you into festivals and public events, and nag the media and websites for reviews.

Does anyone seriously think you can replace all that simply by uploading a file to Apple and announcing your new work on Facebook?

Well, some people do obviously. But I suspect they're in for a big shock when the truth -- and the miserable sales figures -- hit. This kind of tack may well work for a few authors whose work models and target audiences are early adopters who can't wait to buy into the next digital fad. For the rest... it's a pipe dream waiting to fall apart.

Big changes are ahead in publishing. If the past teaches us anything, though, they will happen more slowly than the pundits predict, and the winners will, for the most part, be those big players of yesterday who were smart enough to adapt and run with the wind.