Scarcely a day goes by without yet another article announcing the death of 'legacy publishing' (the business I've been in for sixteen years I guess) and its replacement by digital self-publishing straight to ebook. <a href="http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/2011/03/ebooks-and-self-publishing-dialog.html" target="_blank">Here's the latest entry</a>, a fascinating conversation between Joe Konrath, the digital evangelist, and Barry Eisler, who reveals he's taking the same path after turning down a half million dollar conventional publishing contract.

There's such a frenzy in this field at the moment that it behoves someone to pour a touch of cold water on things. Oh go on then. Let it be me. Here are a few little-spoken of issues to consider before dissing that half million dollar deal yourself...
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	<li>[pullquote]Most self-pubbed ebooks do nothing at all, of course[/pullquote]First, this stuff is taking off big time in America which, in case you hadn't noticed, is a very big country (population 307 million) with a very high take-up of new digital technologies. There are more potential customers  for ebooks in the US than in the rest of the world put together. The UK (population 62 million) likes gadgets too but has nothing like the penetration of ereaders.  A few people can be big in self-pubbed ebooks in America and make a tidy living. A few people can be big in self-pubbed ebooks in the UK and do... ok. Most self-pubbed ebooks do nothing at all, of course.</li>
	<li>If you do go the self-pubbed route you lose, I assume, your conventional agent. Why would they continue to represent someone who's shifting the lion's share of their work outside the field in which an agent works? Let's count what you lose when your agent disappears... Anyone pushing your books into translation (which for UK-based authors can be a very steady source of income). Anyone pushing you for audio, TV and movie deals. Anyone giving you good feedback and advice about what's going on in the industry, how your books are being received, what new opportunities might come along, and a slap round the cheek when you have a <em>really</em> stupid idea.</li>
	<li>Ebooks may be selling like crazy but print books are still very popular too. If you go self-pubbed into digital it's hard to see a meaningful way in which you can take part in that game any more. Retailers won't deal with self-pubbed titles. You won't be in airports. You won't be in the High Street. To many people (hate them for this all you like but it's true) you won't be a <em>real </em>author at all.</li>
	<li>To hell with the people who think you're not real. That you can deal with. But we're back to money again. No printed book means you won't be in libraries either. So European authors will lose any income from public lending right and other copyright schemes (which, based on popularity, can bring in up to £8,000 or more each year in the UK).</li>
	<li>[pullquote]Your margins are likely to become very slim indeed, very quickly. [/pullquote]Your margins are likely to become very slim indeed, very quickly. Best-selling titles on Kindle tend to be there largely through price. It's one thing to price back list titles, that have no need of further work, at 99p or 99 cents (I do that myself). But if you start pricing original work at that level you'll be receiving a mere thirty off pence or cents per sales. The current legal minimum adult wage in the UK is £232 per week. You are going to have to sell 662 of those 99p books each and every week to reach the same pay level as someone behind the counter of McDonalds. To reach the median weekly wage of £499 you will need to shift more than twice as many, more than 1,400 copies, each and every week.</li>
	<li>We're talking gross income here. Not net. Yes, I know people always say to themselves, 'But I'm working for myself from home so I have no overheads.' You do. A web site and broadband connection. Cover costs, editing and formatting advice. Barry Eisler estimates $600 for the cover and formatting for his short story, which sounds on the low side to me. For a full length novel I'd expect to be paying at least three times that, and paying it up front before you've sold a single copy. Then there's the question of...</li>
	<li>[pullquote]You're on your own now, remember? No publicist. No marketing department.[/pullquote]Promotion and marketing. You're on your own now, remember? No publicist. No marketing department. You have to generate interest in your work, through constant activity on social media such as Facebook and Twitter. Or you have to find someone who will do this for you in return for a fee (and there seem to be more of them every day). Either way this will cost you time and/or money. With editing, cover design, promotion and marketing I doubt a properly-launched full-length ebook can come out for less than £3,000 and stand a chance of making it.  You need to sell ten thousand copies just to cover that cost, before you start to earn anything for yourself.</li>
	<li>Your promotional opportunities have now narrowed greatly. Festivals and other public events aren't going to be so interested in a self-published author. Nor will the media. If you're an established writer, well known and with a track record, it may be different. But for a newcomer... it's going to be tough to stand out among the crowd.</li>
	<li>Is it impossible to make these economics work? No. But it's going to be a lot easier in the vast US market where a writer can be a formidable success simply by being popular in the state of California alone. In the UK it's going to be a lot more difficult. The answer is there in the Konrath-Eisler exchange. You're going to have to write more. Short stories. Novellas. And dig out stuff from the back list (which will eventually run out, of course). One book a year used to be considered healthy and quite prolific output. Not any more. If you can get six new 99 cents or 99p titles into the market a year your chances of making a living improve a lot. But that's six things you've got to write. And here's my big worry...</li>
	<li><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-7858" title="Screen shot 2011-03-21 at 15.57.52" src="http://davidhewson.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Screen-shot-2011-03-21-at-15.57.52-300x290.png" alt="" width="300" height="290" />Who's talking about books here? All we hear is 'product' and 'margins'. Very little about quality and breadth and innovation in terms of editorial. Here are the top ten free and paid-for titles on Kindle UK as I write... No criticism of any of the books on the lists here. I'm sure they all deserve to be there. But it's a pretty narrow range, don't you think? Mainly mainstream thrillers with the odd chicklit and horror title. No science fiction title, no fantasy, no general fiction. 'Legacy' publishers often get criticised for putting out down market titles that sell in their millions but don't carry much literary weight. One reason they do this is to subsidise works of more 'merit' that don't sell as well and may one day build a worthwhile career. The ebook market is as ruthless as it gets. If you sell you're there. If you're not, you're lost.</li>
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Don't get me wrong. I think ebooks are a good thing. I've put up some of my backlist and one new short story on Kindle. I'll doubtless add a few things in future. If I lived in the US then perhaps I'd be mulling the route others are taking over there. But I don't, and I fear a lot of people will get burned outside the US thinking the healthy sales available there can be easily replicated in smaller, more difficult markets. In five or ten years... things may be different.

Until then, if you're outside the US and someone offers you a half a million dollar deal... I'd bite their hand off.