<p>NEW YORK (AP) -- An analyst lowered his estimates on Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Thursday to reflect new assumptions for far higher fuel costs.<br />Steven Wieczynski of Stifel Nicolaus &amp; Co. wrote in a note he now expects Royal Caribbean to earn 40 cents per share in the second quarter, down from 43 cents. His estimate is now in line with the average analyst estimate, based on a Thomson Financial survey of 13 analysts.<br />&nbsp;<br />Royal Caribbean forecast in April it expected to earn 40 cents to 45 cents per share in the second quarter, but Wieczynski noted that bunker fuel prices are up about 24 percent since that forecast.</p><p>The analyst, who also reduced his profit estimates for this and next year, noted that Royal Caribbean's newest ship is 40 percent larger than its Freedom class ships but 25 percent more fuel efficient. The Oasis of the Seas, which will be the world's largest cruise ship with more than 6,000 passengers, is scheduled to launch in December 2009.</p><p>Wieczynski also believes Royal Caribbean is better insulated from an economic downturn than its larger rival Carnival Corp., which recently reported flat second-quarter profits despite strong revenue growth due to fuel costs. Carnival also lowered its full-year earnings forecast.</p><p>&quot;While we are concerned with (Royal Caribbean's) debt levels and need to tap the debt markets in order to fund future shipbuilding projects, we believe the company is better insulated than Carnival from a strong economic downturn,&quot; the analyst wrote. &quot;Royal Caribbean is slightly different from Carnival in that their average customer is more upper middle class and higher whereas Carnival does cater to a more economically sensitive customer.&quot;</p><p>He cut his price target to $35 from $42 but maintained a &quot;Buy&quot; rating.</p><p>In morning trading, shares of the Miami company fell 98 cents, or 3.9 percent, to $24.15. The stock is down 41 percent in the year to date.</p>